讲座题目：The U-shaped Nexus Between Income Inequality and Systemic Banking Crises.
时间：2020年12月25日上午9:00-11:00
地点：腾讯会议 899 287 127
主持人：鲁元平 教授
主讲嘉宾：王升泉
中山大学岭南学院 数量经济学博士，中山大学国际金融学院 科研博士后
内容简介： Motivated by the work of Rajan (2010) and the inconclusive evidences, we propose the U-shaped nexus between income inequality and systemic banking crises. Besides the linear ‘Rajan effect’, we develop the nonlinear ‘Kuznets effect’ which states income polarization, through driving the Kuznets-likely economic growth, plays a U-shaped role in modelling crises. We identify the nexus via employing a sample covered 172 economies since 1960. First, the U-shaped relation is confirmed by polling the data and optimal inequality for the financial stability is identified, then the U-test and AUROC statistics suggest that the nonlinearity holds, and our model has a good predictive performance. Furthermore, the panel regressions present the consistent results, and the conclusions stay unchanged across several robustness checks. We then identify the ‘Rajan effect’ and ‘Kuznets effect’ through utilizing the two-step intermediate effect approach. We conclude that the impacts of income inequality on the systemic banking crises are U-shaped.