报告主题： Budgets Rolling and Year-end Spending in China: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment
内容摘要：Using the Budget Law reform in China as a quasi-natural experiment. this paperexamines the causal impact ofUse-it-or-lose-it budget rules on local governments'year-end spending spikes. We exploit all 2.8 million government procurement contracts during 2014-2021 and use a semi-supervised learning algorithm to measure the quality of the contract.We show substantial surges in procurement contracts at the endofthe year and these contracts are more likely oflow quality. The difference-in-difference model indicates that after the reform, local governments award 25.8% more procurement contracts and double spending on procurement in the last month of the year. The year-end spending surges concentrate on goods and construction projects and favorlocalsuppliers.The regions receiving more fiscal transfer exhib it larger year-end spending spikes, but local officials'promotion in- centives mitigate the spikes. This paper provides clear evidence that limiting fiscal funds rollover distorts public resource allocation in China, the world's second-largest economy
主讲人简介：梁平汉 教授
中山大学政治与公共事务管理学院教授、生津大学圣安东尼学院Swire访问学者。毕业干西班牙巴塞罗那自治大学经济学系，研究方向为地方政府行为、博弈论、行为与实验经济学。科研成果发表在Games and Economic Behavior Journal of Comparative Economics和《经济研究》等国内外顶尖期刊。曾获教育部高等院校科研成果(人文社科)奖,霍英东基金会高等院校优秀青年教师奖,中国数量经济学会2019年年会优秀科研成果一等奖等知名奖项。
活动时间：2023年3月23日(星期四) 21:00-22:30(北京时间)13:00-14:30(英国时间)