On 29 April 2021, the 10th Xixian Forum of Income Distribution and Public Finance, co-organized by School of Public Finance and Taxation, ZUEL and IIDPF was held online via Tencent Meeting. As the keynote speaker of the forum, Dr Liu Qing from Iowa State University delivered a keynote speech entitled "Can Pension-Reform Uncertainty Be Desirable? The Case of China". The forum was chaired by Professor Lu Yuanping, Executive Vice Director of IIDPF. Professor Sun Qunli, Vice Director of IIDPF, Dr Wan Xin, Dr Zhang Fan and Dr Wan Qian participated in the forum.
In the coming years, budgetary pressures may further prompt pension insurance reform against the backdrop of multiple pressures on China's pension system, but the scale and timing of the reforms remain uncertain. Based on this, Dr. Liu Qing hypothesizes a future decline in the starting base point of pension insurance in China and specifically investigates the welfare effects of future pension reform risks in a multi-group cross-generational economy characterised by intergenerational human capital externalities and endogenous, altruistically motivated, intra-household intergenerational transfers through constructing a three-period OLG model. The empirical analysis found that there is a substitution between Chinese government pensions and family pensions, with children providing more money for their parents' retirement needs when the level of government pensions decreases. When parents expect more transfers to themselves from their children in the future, there is a greater incentive for parents to invest in their children's education in the current period, which will facilitate higher levels of human capital. At the same time, rising education levels lead to increased social welfare, and intra-household transfers can offset some of the negative effects of policy shocks. Ultimately, the uncertainty of China's pension reform could lead to a rise in net social welfare.
After the presentation, IIDPF faculty and students had a positive online interaction with Dr Liu Qing. Dr Liu Qing focused on answering questions raised by Professor Sun Qunli and Professor Lu Yuanping. Dr. Liu Qing's excellent presentation demonstrated his solid academic background, and his research findings are important for IIDPF's research on the issue of pension insurance and wealth distribution in China.